Sluggish Bear

Not much to take from Monday’s sluggish market.

We’re sticking with our Sell Bias as the major indexes continue to tread under key moving averages.

While we were bullish a week ago, the recent breakdown in leadership suggests new lows for the market may be at hand.

This is a traditionally slow time of year for the markets. Without clear conviction from buyers, it appears down is the path of least resistance.

Though given the tendency of Bear markets to reverse suddenly, we need to be alert to anything that might suggest a more sustainable rally than what we’ve already seen this month.

The semiconductors ETF (SMH), which is fighting to stay above its 200-day moving average, could be just the vehicle to lead broad market action higher.

Though without the support of retail (XRT) and financial (XLF), which are showing weakness below the key average, a rally opportunity is hard to envision.

The week’s main event may come Friday when employment data is due.

Stay tuned,