Extreme Complacency

Traders are likely yapping about a new multi-year low for the VIX. I haven’t bothered to look at a historical chart to see just how long it’s been, but it doesn’t matter. The VIX is indicating traders are likely overly confident in the recent rally and were due for fear, or volatility to return. The VIX uses the OEX options market to gauge such emotions.  It’s mostly telling us what we seem to already understand. 

Lack of upward momentum for recent top stock breakouts OCN and EVER are telling us it’s not a good time to buy. 

Clearly the SPX is feeling the same way as it moves in inches into new high territory. 

We’re putting on shorts.