WCIC, Target Time

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A 10%+ move on WCIC the day after buying it puts profit targets in site. 

The 20% initial target, where this blogger exits half the position, would be hit at about 24, considering the 20.25 initial buy point. It’s tough to be precise when you scale in and out.  General 20% profit markers should be obeyed.

Never let a winner turn into a loser. Get out with a minimum break even should this thing retreat.

 

 

Wicked, WCIC

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Ideal high-vol breakout on WCI Communities (WCIC.).  This blogger is all in after mentioning any break through 20.25 would be an invite. That 20 mark is a big psychological one. Note that’s a weekly chart above. 40-week ema in yellow.

Pattern and volume trend are solid. Under the hood, it’s not exactly stellar with nearly 5% revenue growth (year over year.) Though there is 60% earnings growth and more than 40% return on equity, so it’s well run.

What this mostly has is a solid looking industry group of homebuilders. Stick to a tight stop. Pull in some profits at 20%.

 

Bustin’ Loose

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Take a picture, we’re looking at  perfect breakouts on the major indexes. They don’t happen often. But more importantly, their attractiveness doesn’t really make them any better than any other new high.

Gotta like the high vol move. Gotta like the broad participation across sectors. We’re seeing leadership from tech. The Naz looks to hit an upward channel line soon. So, so much to like here. But don’t fall in love.

We’re staying with a dominant Neutral Bias based on recent distributions. But that doesn’t mean we can’t go swimming just cuz the sharks were out a few weeks ago.

Place your long bets, set your stops. Homebuilders look good. Look at those low rates folks. Go, go go.

Positions Update

Long TWTR. Bought at 38 and 40. Out at 48 for 20% profit. Thanks.

Long USO, March 20 Calls. – Out. Bought at .78. Final Exit at 1.08.

Might be too early to call a bottom on oil. We’ll look for a more strategic long positions when we see:

1. $OVX, oil volatility index retreat to 20’s. This historically trades in the teens. Last print 55. Folks too jittery here.

2. Prices in futures term structure come in line. We’re looking a massive gap from front to back here.

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Last Position Post January

No Current Positions.

Looking to get long WCIC on breakout over 20.25.

 

 

Bull On Prowl

Nice grab bag of fast runners this week. Bull is on the prowl. Screen based on:

  • EPS > 20% Quarterly
  • Sales > 20% Quarterly
  • ROE > 15%
  • Price > 50 and 200 SDMA’s
  • Price > 10
  • Average volume > 300,000
  • Market Cap > $300mil

Ticker Company Sector Industry
AAPL Apple Inc. Consumer Goods Electronic Equipment BO
AFSI AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. Financial Property & Casualty Insurance L-BASE
ANIP ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Healthcare Biotechnology PB
BIIB Biogen Idec Inc. Healthcare Biotechnology PB
BX The Blackstone Group L.P. Financial Asset Management BO
CLDT Chatham Lodging Trust Financial REIT – Hotel/Motel N
CSIQ Canadian Solar Inc. Technology Semiconductor – Specialized L-BASE
EA Electronic Arts Inc. Technology Multimedia & Graphics Software PB
ESRT Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. Financial REIT – Diversified N
EVR Evercore Partners Inc. Financial Asset Management L-BASE
FLT FleetCor Technologies, Inc. Services Business Services L-BASE
GGAL Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. Financial Foreign Regional Banks BO
GILD Gilead Sciences Inc. Healthcare Biotechnology N
ILMN Illumina Inc. Healthcare Biotechnology N
KATE Kate Spade & Company Consumer Goods Textile – Apparel Clothing L-BASE
KNX Knight Transportation Inc. Services Trucking N
LEN Lennar Corp. Industrial Goods Residential Construction NH
MAC The Macerich Company Financial REIT – Retail N
MCK McKesson Corporation Services Drugs Wholesale NH
MIC Macquarie Infrastructure Company LLC Services Air Services, Other PB
NRZ New Residential Investment Corp. Financial REIT – Residential BASE
NOAH Noah Holdings Limited Financial Asset Management L-BASE
QRVO Qorvo, Inc. Technology Semiconductor – Broad Line N
SCSS Select Comfort Corporation Consumer Goods Home Furnishings & Fixtures NH
SHLX Shell Midstream Partners, L.P. Basic Materials Oil & Gas Pipelines BASE
SHPG Shire plc Healthcare Drug Manufacturers – Major N
SWKS Skyworks Solutions Inc. Technology Semiconductor – Integrated Circuits BASE
TASR TASER International Inc. Industrial Goods Aerospace/Defense Products & Services PB
UA Under Armour, Inc. Consumer Goods Textile – Apparel Clothing BO
UVE Universal Insurance Holdings Inc. Financial Property & Casualty Insurance BASE
WNR Western Refining, Inc. Basic Materials Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing N

 

BASE = Base

L-BASE = Lower Base

PB = Pullback

NH = New High

N = Nada

It’s That Easy

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Broad-based breakout in effect.

Waste of time to think. Just watch… watch for signs of buy-vol drying up and/or leadership breaking down. It’s that easy. It is.

Bear Bias down. Neutral Bias Up.

 

Burn The Burned

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Homebuilders are back.

This blogger’s anticipation of an industry wide breakout soured after a couple of less than rosy outlooks from key companies sent investors into defensive mode. That big, fat red volume bar tells us more than a few paws got burnt trying to play it. But the setup is back and poised better than ever to bust north. What we liked then, we like now.

More discernible pivot points are in play, making our ability to define risk even easier.

Look at NVR and WCIC for the defined bases. Forget about KBH.

Use industry group ETF ITBRYL and LEN as coal mine canaries.

Let ‘er rip.

 

 

Slow N’ Low

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The broader market looks to breakout as every major index and key sector trades solidly above the 50 and 200 SMA’s. If you’re short get out. Aggressive money gets in front.

Keep it in perspective that recent volume favors bears. So it won’t be a surprise to see a fakeout/breakout shake the shorts, and longs, in one fell swoop or two.

Look alive out there.

 

 

Cocked, Might Be Loaded

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Slight accumulation and we’re looking at a cup with handle position for the majors.

Shorts must be nervous about now. This blog has been out on a bear bias, but lost conviction actually short sessions ago. This market has been wound so tight it’s going to break one way or another. Immediate situation spells upside – but let the market prove that. We’ll react accordingly.

Stay safe.

Bull Herd

Here’s a collection of bases and pullbacks, as well as a few broken charts and non trending vehicles in this week’s screen for:

  • EPS > 20% Quarterly
  • Sales > 20% Quarterly
  • ROE > 15%
  • Price > 50 and 200 SDMA’s
  • Price > 10
  • Average volume > 300,000
  • Market Cap > $300mil

Red Flag/Bear Bias on the broader market – so keep it real. Not a time to buy.

Ticker Company Sector Industry Chart
AAPL Apple Inc. Consumer Goods Electronic Equipment BO
AFSI AmTrust Financial Services, Inc. Financial Property & Casualty Insurance L-BASE
AMBA Ambarella, Inc. Technology Semiconductor Equipment & Materials L-BASE
ANIP ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Healthcare Biotechnology BASE
BIIB Biogen Idec Inc. Healthcare Biotechnology BO
BX The Blackstone Group L.P. Financial Asset Management PB
CLDT Chatham Lodging Trust Financial REIT – Hotel/Motel PB
CNC Centene Corp. Healthcare Health Care Plans BO
EA Electronic Arts Inc. Technology Multimedia & Graphics Software NH
ESRT Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. Financial REIT – Diversified N
GGAL Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. Financial Foreign Regional Banks BASE
ILMN Illumina Inc. Healthcare Biotechnology N
LCI Lannett Company, Inc. Healthcare Drugs – Generic L-BASE
LEN Lennar Corp. Industrial Goods Residential Construction BASE
MIC Macquarie Infrastructure Company LLC Services Air Services, Other PB
NFLX Netflix, Inc. Services CATV Systems BASE
NOAH Noah Holdings Limited Financial Asset Management L-BASE
NRZ New Residential Investment Corp. Financial REIT – Residential BASE
OHI Omega Healthcare Investors Inc. Financial REIT – Healthcare Facilities PB
SHLX Shell Midstream Partners, L.P. Basic Materials Oil & Gas Pipelines N
SHPG Shire plc Healthcare Drug Manufacturers – Major N
SWKS Skyworks Solutions Inc. Technology Semiconductor – Integrated Circuits PB
TASR TASER International Inc. Industrial Goods Aerospace/Defense Products & Services PB
TSRA Tessera Technologies Inc. Technology Semiconductor Equipment & Materials NH
UA Under Armour, Inc. Consumer Goods Textile – Apparel Clothing BASE
UVE Universal Insurance Holdings Inc. Financial Property & Casualty Insurance PB
WNR Western Refining, Inc. Basic Materials Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing N
XRS TAL Education Group Services Education & Training Services N

 

BASE = Base

L-BASE = Lower Base

PB = Pullback

NH = New High

N = Nada