Fight Or Flight



Fifty-fifty odds just aren’t good enough.

Just at we breakout, we don’t. Just as heavy sell-vol creeps in, we rally.

For this, my friends, we have maintained our Neutral Bias for months. It’s kept us out of trouble. We’re ready to pounce when the market sets up properly.

While homebuilders can no longer be deemed a good bet, our lone long in WCIC has held up just fine. Those looking to remove risk will do so ahead of earnings tomorrow. But not us. We’ll take what the market gives. Half of this position has already been cashed in with a 20% profit.



Bear Shout Out


Honking distribution day Friday, the kind of thing to trigger a sustained sell off. 

The 50-day moving averages are in play on the majors. We’re holding a Neutral Bias, though will shift down to a full Bear stance if we get consistent closes below these marks.

Homebuilders are showing relative strength, especially our lone long in WCIC, which has rebounded convincingly on the heels of a swift sell off in relation to more shares of it being issued.

Stay tuned.


Hanging Tough

Growth Stocks, as our group of screened, top performers indicates, are holding firm.

This is to be expected as the broader market maintains its bullish qualities, quiet as they are.

Nothing stellar enough for a buy this week.

Take the overall durability of this group as another sign that the broader market is in decent shape.

This screen is based on:

  • • EPS > 20% Quarterly
  • • Sales > 20% Quarterly
  • • ROE > 15%
  • • Price > 50 and 200 SDMA’s
  • • Price > 10
  • • Average volume > 300,000
  • • Market Cap > $300mil

Ticker Company Industry CHART
AAPL Apple Inc. Electronic Equipment PB
AGO Assured Guaranty Ltd. Surety & Title Insurance NH
ALXN Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Biotechnology N
AMBA Ambarella, Inc. Semiconductor Equipment & Materials PB
ANIP ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Biotechnology BASE
ATHM Autohome Inc. Internet Information Providers BASE
BIIB Biogen Inc. Biotechnology PB
BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV Beverages – Brewers N
CBM Cambrex Corporation. Biotechnology PB
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Restaurants N
CPN Calpine Corp. Electric Utilities N
CRZO Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc. Independent Oil & Gas L-BASE
CSIQ Canadian Solar Inc. Semiconductor – Specialized BASE
DEPO DepoMed Inc. Drug Manufacturers – Other NH
DGX Quest Diagnostics Inc. Medical Laboratories & Research BASE
EA Electronic Arts Inc. Multimedia & Graphics Software PB
EGN Energen Corp. Independent Oil & Gas L-BASE
EPE EP Energy Corporation Independent Oil & Gas L-BASE
FB Facebook, Inc. Internet Information Providers PB
FLT FleetCor Technologies, Inc. Business Services BASE
GBX The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. Railroads L-BASE
GGAL Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. Foreign Regional Banks PB
GILD Gilead Sciences Inc. Biotechnology L-BASE
GTN Gray Television, Inc. Broadcasting – TV BASE
ILMN Illumina Inc. Biotechnology N
JKS JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. Semiconductor – Specialized L-BASE
KATE Kate Spade & Company Textile – Apparel Clothing L-BASE
LCI Lannett Company, Inc. Drugs – Generic PB
LGND Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Biotechnology NH
MACK Merrimack Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Biotechnology NH
MCK McKesson Corporation Drugs Wholesale BASE
MDVN Medivation, Inc. Biotechnology PB
NFLX Netflix, Inc. CATV Systems NH
NOAH Noah Holdings Limited Asset Management NH
OTEX Open Text Corporation Application Software N
OZRK Bank of the Ozarks, Inc. Regional – Southeast Banks PB
PDCE PDC Energy, Inc. Independent Oil & Gas PB
SBGI Sinclair Broadcast Group, Inc. Broadcasting – TV BASE
SC Santander Consumer USA Holdings Inc. Mortgage Investment N
SCSS Select Comfort Corporation Home Furnishings & Fixtures PB
SKX Skechers USA Inc. Textile – Apparel Footwear & Accessories BASE
SPWR SunPower Corporation Semiconductor – Specialized L-BASE
SUPN Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Drugs – Generic NH
SWKS Skyworks Solutions Inc. Semiconductor – Integrated Circuits PB
TBI TrueBlue, Inc. Staffing & Outsourcing Services L-BASE
TEDU Tarena INTERNATIONAL,INC. Education & Training Services N
THO Thor Industries Inc. Recreational Vehicles PB
TMHC Taylor Morrison Home Corporation Residential Construction L-BASE
UVE Universal Insurance Holdings Inc. Property & Casualty Insurance PB
VDSI VASCO Data Security International Inc. Security Software & Services L-BASE
VNTV Vantiv, Inc. Business Services PB
VRSK Verisk Analytics, Inc. Business Services BASE

BASE = Base

L-BASE = Lower Base

PB = Pullback

NH = New High

N = Nada

Balled Up


Beware the contraction in volatility.

We’ve been waiting a long time for price action to break.

Multiple days of accumulation built into the scene continues to suggest we’ll see a breakout. But never count out the breakdown.

We’re staying long, although with a Yellow Flag bias.

WCIC, homebuilder positions still intact.

Carry on.