One Way Or Another

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Coiled price action threatens to break one way or another. Odds are it’ll be North. Not much evidence of breakdown in the technicals.

Monday’s low-vol rally means little. But it’s low means everything. We’re watching this to trigger fund flows on the downside, which if heavy, will put a dent in our belief up is the path of least resistance.

Stay tuned.

 

The Big Fat D

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Bear takes the ball as distribution across the market coupled with a 50-day sma test for the S&P 500 has everyone looking down.

Fifty-day averages are in play. Closes below these markers will have us looking to shift the bias down to Bearish from Neutral.

It’s quick turns like this that kept us out of a Bullish bias going in.

Lone long in WCIC experienced no distribution. Homebuilders as a group are hanging tough.

More later.

Definition

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Clear cup-and-handle pattern on the S&P says breakout or die.

Last week’s hi-vol Fed day put a fire under the Bull. The Bear has yet to counter with anything. Chart structure remains in upward channels across the market.

Odds are we’ll breakout. The telling would be in how it sticks.

As always – trade what is and not what should be.

 

 

 

Letting Loose

The bull is strong within this week’s select list of top earners.

Licking our chops over lower bases setting up…

Screen Based On:

  • Sales > 20% Quarterly
  • EPS > 20% Quarterly
  • ROE > 15%
  • Price > 50 and 200 SDMA’s
  • Price > 10
  • Average volume > 300,000
  • Market Cap > $300mil

Ticker Company Sector Industry Chart
AAL American Airlines Group Inc. Services Major Airlines BASE
AAPL Apple Inc. Consumer Goods Electronic Equipment PB
AER AerCap Holdings N.V. Services Air Services, Other BASE
AGO Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial Surety & Title Insurance BASE
ALXN Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Healthcare Biotechnology L-BASE
AMBA Ambarella, Inc. Technology Semiconductor Equipment & Materials NH
ANIP ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Healthcare Biotechnology PB
ATHM Autohome Inc. Technology Internet Information Providers L-BASE
BIIB Biogen Idec Inc. Healthcare Biotechnology NH
BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV Consumer Goods Beverages – Brewers PB
CBM Cambrex Corporation. Healthcare Biotechnology PB
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Services Restaurants N
CSIQ Canadian Solar Inc. Technology Semiconductor – Specialized BASE
DEPO DepoMed Inc. Healthcare Drug Manufacturers – Other PB
DGX Quest Diagnostics Inc. Healthcare Medical Laboratories & Research NH
EA Electronic Arts Inc. Technology Multimedia & Graphics Software PB
EVR Evercore Partners Inc. Financial Asset Management L-BASE
FB Facebook, Inc. Technology Internet Information Providers BO
FLT FleetCor Technologies, Inc. Services Business Services PB
FLWS 1-800-Flowers.com Inc. Services Specialty Retail, Other PB
GGAL Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. Financial Foreign Regional Banks NH
GILD Gilead Sciences Inc. Healthcare Biotechnology N
GTN Gray Television Inc. Services Broadcasting – TV PB
ILMN Illumina Inc. Healthcare Biotechnology N
JKS JinkoSolar Holding Co., Ltd. Technology Semiconductor – Specialized L-BASE
KATE Kate Spade & Company Consumer Goods Textile – Apparel Clothing L-BASE
KNX Knight Transportation Inc. Services Trucking BASE
LCI Lannett Company, Inc. Healthcare Drugs – Generic PB
LEN Lennar Corp. Industrial Goods Residential Construction BO
LGND Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Healthcare Biotechnology PB
LSTR Landstar System Inc. Services Trucking N
MAC The Macerich Company Financial REIT – Retail PB
MACK Merrimack Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Healthcare Biotechnology PB
MCK McKesson Corporation Services Drugs Wholesale BASE
MDVN Medivation, Inc. Healthcare Biotechnology PB
NOAH Noah Holdings Limited Financial Asset Management BASE
NXST Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc. Services Broadcasting – TV N
OZRK Bank of the Ozarks, Inc. Financial Regional – Southeast Banks BASE
PDCE PDC Energy, Inc. Basic Materials Independent Oil & Gas L-BASE
PPL PPL Corporation Utilities Electric Utilities N
QRVO Qorvo, Inc. Technology Semiconductor – Broad Line PB
SBGI Sinclair Broadcast Group, Inc. Services Broadcasting – TV L-BASE
SCSS Select Comfort Corporation Consumer Goods Home Furnishings & Fixtures NH
SKX Skechers USA Inc. Consumer Goods Textile – Apparel Footwear & Accessories PB
SPWR SunPower Corporation Technology Semiconductor – Specialized L-BASE
SUPN Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Healthcare Drugs – Generic BASE
SWKS Skyworks Solutions Inc. Technology Semiconductor – Integrated Circuits NH
TBI TrueBlue, Inc. Services Staffing & Outsourcing Services L-BASE
THO Thor Industries Inc. Consumer Goods Recreational Vehicles PB
TMHC Taylor Morrison Home Corporation Industrial Goods Residential Construction L-BASE
UVE Universal Insurance Holdings Inc. Financial Property & Casualty Insurance PB
VNTV Vantiv, Inc. Services Business Services PB
VRSK Verisk Analytics, Inc. Services Business Services N
  • BASE = Base
  • L-BASE = Lower Base
  • PB = Pullback
  • NH = New High
  • N = Nada

Momo vs. Sell Vol

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My friends in the media sure do write a lot about nothing, imho. The market might go up, it might go down. That simple. Journalists can gather all the stats and releases to make sense of price action. But be assured there’s always much deeper,unseen activity in the works of things.

Best rule to live by is to be nimble, stay profitable. No need to try and understand it all.

Where the upward momentum of major averages and key sectors makes it foolish to want to short, we’ve seen evidence of funds letting loose shares, perhaps to take profits or be defensive. This sell volume can’t be ignored.

Bias remains neutral.

Long position in WCIC intact.

Carry on.

 

 

 

Bull Style

Little chart corruption among these top sellers and earners.

We’re mostly looking at pullback from highs as well as new highs. This strength weighs into the Bull side of analysis. Hard to be a bear when there’s clearly a strong crop of movers out there. Our bottom like bias remains Neutral as multiple distribution days tell us funds have been on defense.

Screen Based On:

  • Sales > 20% Quarterly
  • EPS > 20% Quarterly
  • ROE > 15%
  • Price > 50 and 200 SDMA’s
  • Price > 10
  • Average volume > 300,000
  • Market Cap > $300mil

Ticker Company Sector Chart
AAPL Apple Inc. Consumer Goods PB
AER AerCap Holdings N.V. Services L-BSASE
AGO Assured Guaranty Ltd. Financial BASE
AMBA Ambarella, Inc. Technology NH
ANIP ANI Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Healthcare PB
BIIB Biogen Idec Inc. Healthcare PB
CBM Cambrex Corporation. Healthcare NH
CSIQ Canadian Solar Inc. Technology L-BASE
DEPO DepoMed Inc. Healthcare NH
DGX Quest Diagnostics Inc. Healthcare BO
EA Electronic Arts Inc. Technology PB
FB Facebook, Inc. Technology BASE
FLT FleetCor Technologies, Inc. Services NT
FLWS 1-800-Flowers.com Inc. Services NH
GGAL Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. Financial NH
KNX Knight Transportation Inc. Services BASE
LCI Lannett Company, Inc. Healthcare NH
LEAF Springleaf Holdings, LLC Financial PB
LEN Lennar Corp. Industrial Goods PB
LGND Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Healthcare NH
MAC The Macerich Company Financial NH
MACK Merrimack Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Healthcare PB
MCK McKesson Corporation Services PB
MDVN Medivation, Inc. Healthcare NH
NFLX Netflix, Inc. Services PB
NOAH Noah Holdings Limited Financial BASE
NXST Nexstar Broadcasting Group, Inc. Services PB
PDCE PDC Energy, Inc. Basic Materials L-BASE
QLYS Qualys, Inc. Technology PB
QRVO Qorvo, Inc. Technology BASE
SCSS Select Comfort Corporation Consumer Goods NH
SKX Skechers USA Inc. Consumer Goods PB
SPWR SunPower Corporation Technology L-BASE
SWKS Skyworks Solutions Inc. Technology NH
TMHC Taylor Morrison Home Corporation Industrial Goods L-BASE
UVE Universal Insurance Holdings Inc. Financial PB
VNTV Vantiv, Inc. Services PB
VRSK Verisk Analytics, Inc. Services PB
  • BASE = Base
  • L-BASE = Lower Base
  • PB = Pullback
  • NH = New High
  • N = Nada

The Claw Back

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Mixed signals as the S&P 500 manages to reverse recent losses and close above its 50-day MA.

Serious dumping of shares has yet to be countered with accumulation.

There is no real deterioration among the leading sectors and market backbone of financials, retail and tech.

Bearish Volume + Bullish Price Action = Neutral Bias

Successful speculation is about observation.

WCIC very much intact as a long. 20% initial target hit. Ok to add more with close to zero as a dollar stop loss.

 

Touching Down

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Easy layup with the major indexed hanging just above their 50-day MA’s. We’ll see a test soon.

Major distribution day Friday = Just another sign funds are on the defense.

However, we’re seeing top names hold their uptrends. Can’t shift down from our neutral bias just yet – not unless leadership crumbles.

Let’s see how those 50-day MA’s are handled.

 

Majors’ Majors

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A casual look at the major indexes moving averages tells us it’s trend up. A three year old would confirm it.

Easy to call a pullback. But fear what’s easy.

This kind of action may create a melt up.

If not even bad news can shake this bull off it’s path, what would?

Wait and see what might setup for next week.

 

Rules Of Gravity

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Naz 5,000, now the pullback. Gravity rules.

Up trend remains strong. Multiple distribution days, including a small one Wednesday, create some hesitation. Perhaps we’re in the midst of a pullback to the 50-day SMA’s.

This blogger was a self proclaimed genius the last time the Naz hit 5,000. Collapse of the tech bubble made fools of many of us. I’m proud to still be playing the game –  much much more wisely.

chugalug

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Major indexes inch higher. Volume patterns favor bears. We’re staying neutral.

Positions Update:

20% target on WCIC hit. Cash register rung with half the initial position.

Homebuilder fundamentals and techinicals bullish until proven otherwise.

Stay tuned.