To Taper, Or Not

Wednesday will be Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s final meeting before ending his stint, where it is widely believed he won’t make any announcement to taper the amount of dollars being pumped into the system.

We won’t be surprised to see a holding pattern until any announcement is made.

Long term Buyer’s Caution view intact. Short-term pullback scenario still a very likely reality.

*My apologies for the site difficulties last week. Everything is nearly straightened out. A few posts were lost, that we’ll have to see about getting back.


Red Rain


Continued heavy sell volume adds enough weight to the major indexes that we’re putting the odds favorably in the Bears camp. This is an immediate bias, not to be confused with a longer-term bullish perspective backed up by fundamentals. 

The 50-day moving averages will come in play as downside targets, unless we see: 1- Sell volume start to dry up, and/or buy volume start to pick up again. Volume often precludes price action. Obviously, any serious break down in leadership, or resurgence, will be additional, key evidence. 

Hoping Is For Losers


Two days of heavy selling, or distribution, and we’re calling this immediate environment favorable to bears. 

We’ll hold our longer-term Buyer’s Caution bias unless we see more heavy selling combined with a collapse in leadership, which would make us Bears. Sell volume drying up would indicate bears losing their grip on the wheel. Though odds are good we’ll see the major indexes pullback to the 50-day averages. The market is too extended for a Buyer’s Edge bias to come into play. 

Let’s stay objective. We don’t ‘want’ to see anything happen. All we ‘want’ is to react with good decisions to whatever the market throws our way. Hoping, in this game, is for losers.