The Iffy Bull

The Bull has yet get a grip as the gravity of the Bear keeps it in check.

Lackluster action hasn’t given us much a trend to buy into. As price action on the major indexes remains below major moving averages we’re in no position to think the upside of this market is the path of least resistance.

However, it’s often a mistake to short a dull market. While the strength of the Bull is iffy, we’re holding a Buyer’s Caution bias, or Yellow Flag, for lack of more conviction among Bears.

Stay tuned,


Sellers Make Their Mark

Heavy selling under major averages adds fuel to the Bears’ cause.

The technical picture has given us a new bearish look. But it’s not enough to shift our market bias down from Buyer’s Caution.

Let’s see how the week closes out. A more extensive analysis of the market is likely to reveal stronger signs of strengths and weaknesses.

It’s been a mistake to jump the gun too early in this choppy summertime market.

Stay tuned,

Dan (at)

Buyers Take It Up

A heavy dose of buy-volume Tuesday doesn’t change our outlook much.

As the S&P 500 tests its 50-day moving average we don’t want to lose sight of the fact that as long as action remains below the 200-day the market need to do more to convince us that it might be a bull.

We’re holding a Buyer’s Caution bias, which basically is a neutral stance for us that respects the market’s general leaning toward upward drift.

In order for us to upgrade to Buyer’s Edge, we need to see more dominant buying in conjunction with leading stocks hitting new highs.

In order for us to downgrade to Seller’s Edge we want to see that opposite.

Stay tuned,


Sleepy Summer Action

It’s hard to be bullish with major indexes back below their 50-day moving averages.

But we’re holding our Buyer’s Caution bias for the time being as we wait to add more evidence to our analysis.

Sleepy summer action has many major funds on the sidelines. Without the benefit of being able to gauge what these market drivers are up to we’ve decided to do the same and remain low-key.

Sooner or later a more clear picture will be had, proving an edge to place our capital with.

Until then, enjoy the summer.


Not Loading The Boat

With the 200-day averages broken to the downside the 50-days are now in play for the major indexes.

We’re not lining up big one way or another in this market. For that last 200+ trading days the market has produced pretty much nothing for buy-and-hold investors.

While our strategy of breakout growth stock buying has been sidelines, we’ve been stalking short opportunities, but are not quite at the point where we want to load that boat too considerably.

Stay tuned,


Holding Our Bias

Clear and heavy selling Wednesday sent price action on the major indexes back below its 200-day moving averages.

That’s two days of Distribution in a row.

As the 50-day averages now serve as support we’ll wait to see how they hold before changing our current bias of Buyer’s Caution.

Stay tuned,


Bull Holding Ground

The prospects of a Bull market stay alive as the major indexes hold above their 200-day moving averages.

Tuesday’s modest sell-off rang few alarms with the exception of Distribution for semiconductors (SMH) and retail (RTH.)

We might expect a quiet summer week if it weren’t for Employment Data to be released Friday. With the prospects of a double-dip recession haunting economists, this report might be especially sensitive for the market.

Our main concern going forward for this current rally is a crowd of eager sellers waiting to recoup losses over the past few months. In technical terms, this is called overhead resistance.

The key mark we’re using to monitor the trend is the 20o-day averages. Unless we see institutional-grade funds unwinding positions, we’re likely to become bigger believers that up is the path of least resistance.

We feel it’s a little too premature to raise our bias from Buyer’s Caution.

Stay tuned,